DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/20 11:07
All Grains Up at Midday
Trade is higher across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 5. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 5 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude up 0.38. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower
with gold down $6.
Corn trade is 4 to 6 higher at midday in firmer action during the day
session. Prices remain just below the 20-day and 100-day moving averages which
found sell stops and some fresh chart selling yesterday and a poor finish today
could trigger some more selling going into the weekend. Basis has firmed with
harvest wrapping up and slower farmer selling with the futures rally slowing.
Ethanol margins are remaining fairly stable in the near term. On the December
chart the 100-day at $3.69 and the 20-day at $3.71 were support, but are now
resistance, that we have tested this morning. The next downside major moving
average is the 50-day at $3.51, which we would label major support now and we
would label the Nov. 5 $3.59 low as nearby support. The weekly export sales
were better than expected at 908,700 metric tons. The USDA announced 101,600
metric tons of corn sold to an unknown destination.
Soybean trade is 10 to 15 cents higher at midday with bargain hunting
surfacing after the overnight pressure. Meal is $3 to $5 higher and oil is flat
to 10 points higher. Talk of more bean acres domestically next year and a lack
of major weather issues early on in South America are shifting focus back to
the supply side of the soybean market. January beans came within a few cents of
$10 yesterday and could challenge support again if the bounce today fizzles.
The 20-day at $10.27 is now nearby resistance now. The $10 is support on Jan
beans with the 50-day at $9.84 the next level. The weekly export sales were
mixed with 483,300 metric tons of soybeans disappointing, but strong product
sales of 265,000 metric tons of meal, and 19,600 of oil. The USDA also
announced additional sales of 140,000 metric tons to an unknown destination.
Wheat trade is 6 to 12 higher across the three contracts at midday. Wheat
has followed row crop trade so far today. The dollar is mostly sideways, but a
sustained move lower will be needed before trade gets too excited about any
sort of move in currency values related to wheat. The Russian/Ukraine political
situation will continue to be watched as well as weather. Wheat is flirting
with the downside on the charts. The 50-day and lowest major moving average is
at $5.84 on the December Kansas City contract which we tested overnight before
bouncing. The weekly export sales were ok at 361,700 metric tons.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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