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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/22 12:06

   Wheat, Corn Lower at Midday

   Mixed trade at midday, soybeans are showing the most strength.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 130 points. 
The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 34 higher. Energies 
are mostly mixed with crude up 0.50. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down $4.50.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday in quiet trade with trade seeing 
spillover from the soft wheat trade and a lack of any exciting revelations from 
on crop conditions. Ethanol margins dipped a bit with the energy pull-back 
bigger than the corn pull-back but remains positive, even as futures edge lower 
this a.m. The weekly crop progress report had corn unchanged at 62% good to 
excellent, 12% poor to very poor, 76% in the dough, 1 percentage point behind 
average, 29% dented, 6 percentage points behind normal. On the December chart 
support is the new low at $3.60 3/4 touched yesterday and tested this morning 
with the contract low at $3.58 1/4 below that. Resistance is at the 10-day 
moving average at $3.70.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade setting back from 
the initial overnight highs with the November contract trading just above $9.40 
at times today. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points. Rain 
coverage was a bit better than expected in Iowa and Illinois overnight in many 
areas. There are reports of soybeans with lower-than-normal pod counts, but 
that doesn't always translate to lower yields. Weekly crop progress improved 1 
percentage point to 60% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor with 97% 
blooming, same as average and 87% setting pods, 2 percentage pointS above 
average. On the November chart support is at the fresh low for the move at 
$9.21, then the one-year low printed in June at $9.07. The 10-day moving 
average is chart resistance at $9.39 which we have tested this morning. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 7 cents lower with trade seeing a resumption of selling 
pressure once we got to the day session once again. Russian harvest continues 
to make good progress which will keep pressure on for now. The dollar has 
rebounded overnight ahead of the on going Fed conference. Spring wheat harvest 
is 58% complete, 7 percentage points above average, with conditions up 1 
percentage point at 34% good to excellent, and 42% poor to very poor. Trade is 
heavily oversold, which should translate into bigger short covering at some 
point ahead of winter wheat planting. On the December Kansas City contract 
support is the $4.29 fresh low with resistance at the 10-day at $4.55.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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