DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/20 11:51
Grains Mixed at Midday
There is again mixed midday strength, but today corn is inching to new
6-month highs at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 69. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 11 points lower. Energies
are higher with crude up $1.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are
higher with gold up $2.
Corn trade at new highs for the move at midday with futures up 2 to 3 cents;
it is still a slow day with a daily range under a nickel. It is likely going to
get volatile before the day is over. Buy stops are above our midday prices with
the potential for a more major trend shift. No granted many traders question
the need for an upside move, but trade volume will determine where we go this
afternoon and early next week, not ideas. Obviously Argentine weather forecasts
remain on the forefront of market news getting paid attention to. There is
reason for concern therefore the market does not appear to want to give back
gains today. The weekly export sales number was also supportive this morning at
1.367 million tons. President Trump is speaking to the nation here at midday
which appears to be friendly for corn. On the March corn chart support is at
the $3.60 10-day moving average with resistance at the $3.70 200-day moving
Soybean trade is 1 cent higher, meal is up $1.50 and bean oil is down 10-15
points at midday. Overnight up to midday trade has been mostly lower, down as
much as a dime at one time, so momentum is firm at midday. The weakness
overnight was noted as light long profit taking again. The weekly export sales
were good at 979,600 tons for beans, 269,800 tons of meal and 41,500 tons of
soybean oil. Beans have not challenged the new high for the move printed this
week but we have not given back much of the added weather premium added this
week. That favors a friendly weekly close which gives the risk of short
covering this afternoon. Weather forecasts and weekend weather will give us
direction next week. On the March soybean chart support is at the 10-day and
highest major moving average at $10.37; resistance is at the $10.80 6-month
high. The next level of resistance would be the $11 area; then the March
futures high last June at $11.35.
Wheat trade is 1 to 7 lower at midday with Minneapolis seeing the most
pressure due to noted long profit taking. The weekly export sales were poor at
242,500 tons keeping demand news bearish for wheat. The Minneapolis contract
remains more dynamic and has the most room to correct. The March KC $4.43
10-day moving average was support which the futures dropped down to yesterday
then below it today so this is now resistance then the $4.58 200-day. Support
is a the $4.28 100-day moving average.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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