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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/28 11:12

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Trade is narrowly mixed at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 80 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 49 points lower. 
Energies are mixed with crude 0.50 lower. Livestock trade has hogs lower and 
cattle and feeders higher. Precious metals are higher with gold $7.80 higher.  


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade giving back early 
gains as moderate termperatures and a lack of fresh demand news help trade to 
set back. On ethanol, producer margins remain just okay and blender margins 
remain poor with the weakness in unleaded values dragging the complex lower, 
with ethanol futures a penny lower. The weather forecast is cooler in the near 
term with rains looking for limited for the next week or so for much of the 
belt, overall the crop should continue to develop at a good pace with strong 
yields very likely. Export sales were mediocre at 438,800 metric tons of old 
crop, and 476,500 of new. The bull argument here is strong demand is present to 
take on the big supplies, with US origin at a discount to the rest of the 
world. On the December contract support is the contract low at $3.33 1/4. 
Resistance is the 10-day moving average at $3.46; then the 20-day at $3.53.  


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with two sided trade as the market 
digests a bit more moderate extended forecast, and demand items weren't enough 
to trigger buying. Meal is mixed and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Near term 
weather looks non-threatening for the most part, but the extended weather 
forecast is still showing hints of a warmer and drier early August weather. 
Export business should continue to favor the US with the weekly sales were 
mixed at -1,400 metric tons of old crop, 678,200 of new, 79,200 of old crop 
meal, 71,500 of new crop meal, and 6,500 of oil. The USDA announced 328,000 
metric tons sold to unknown, and 129,000 to China. On the November soybean 
chart support is at the $9.63 3-month recent low, then the 200-day moving 
average at 9.53, with resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.07. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher across the three contracts at midday 
with the sharply lower dollar adding support this morning, but weaker row crop 
trade has limited upside. The heavy world and domestic supplies continue to 
limit upside in wheat, but a reversal in the dollar would be broadly supportive 
if it can be exteneded. Production estimates continue to slide out of 
Continental Europe while Russian production estimates remains strong. A weekly 
export sales were 506,100 metric tons, continuing to run well ahead of last 
years pace. On the Kansas City December chart support is at the $4.24 contract 
low. Resistance is at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages around $4.41 then 
the 50-day at 4.73. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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